Whats the risk of discreetly exporting a red-dot sight? (long read)

Here's something really confusing about the situation with red-dot export.

(Info first, questions in the last paragraphs)

Export country, ITAR/EAR, TSA and BIS:

I live in Armenia. ITAR/EAR regulations should prevent me from being able to order most if any optics from the USA or EU directly or even through a freight forwarder (more on this later). But heres the catch, Ive emailed/called both the US TSA and Bureau of Industry and Security about the issue, and the former told me that sights are not prohibited items on airplanes and hence are not strictly regulated by TSA agents. The latter told me theres a special export license to be obtained if I wish to take it out of the country, but funny enough, the online application form is only meant for businesses, not individuals, which I assume implies that its only required for commercial export, but not for personal private civilian use cases.

Ive read the relevant clauses in the ITAR/EAR regulations and to the extent my understanding of it allows, there was no clarification whether its meant only for commercial export or includes individuals too (thats if I havent missed anything).

Im also aware that application reviews for the BIS export license for Country Group D countries (that includes Armenia) are currently on hold due to the Ukraine war and that red-dots do fall under the category of restricted items for export to Group D countries. However, again, none of it clarifies if it refers to official, commercial export or any case of just a dude taking an optic in his baggage to another country.

USA/EU stores, Amazon:

Ive also messaged multiple USA and EU stores asking about their ability to ship optics to me, either directly or through a freight forwarder. All the US ones either denied, citing ITAR/EAR, or said the best way to find out is to try ordering one and see if it goes through (same for Amazon). European stores based in EU proper adhered to the same rules too, while the ones outside of the Union said they could be able to ship Aimpoint and Holosun to Armenia, but not EOTech (those were the ones I asked them about).

Ive also emailed the forwarder about the issue and if theres any restriction on their side and indeed they confirmed there is. But interestingly, I had previously ordered a knife from a US store via the same forwarder before I even knew about ITAR and it arrived just fine even though knives are also ITAR-regulated, go figure.

As such I really have no idea what is regulated and to exactly what extent.

Ill also have a friend visiting over from the US soon and wondering if he could bring a red-dot with him in his checked baggage.

So my questions are, considering all of the above:

What happens if my friend just throws one into his baggage on his way here? Neither of us are US citizens if that matters.

What happens if I go ahead and try ordering an optic through one of the US stores or Amazon to a freight forwarder's address (located in Delaware) for further export to Armenia?

Whos really in control of these matters at the airports? It seems like the TSA doesnt care judging from their reply to my inquiries (saying its not under their jurisdiction to determine the legality of export of such items and explicitly citing that weapon sights are indeed allowed onboard).

My guess is, 99% of the time, nothing would happen, both by individual export or through a forwarder, but of course mileage may vary. I really hope someone whos travelled with optics or similar items could answer.

Thanks.